Xing Wu
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The Egyptian Center for Information and Decision Support (IDSC) on Tuesday 7/12/2021 published a report including infographics highlighting the expectations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the Egyptian economy will become the second largest Arab and African economy in 2022, in further international testimony to the continued march of economic achievements.
The report states that IMF expectations point to an increase in total revenue as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), to register 18.6 percent in 2021/2022, 18.7 percent in 2022/23, 18.9 percent in 2021/2022, 18.9 percent in 2022/23, 18.9 percent in 2021/2022 percent in 2023/2024, and 19 1 percent in 2024/2025.
The IMF also expected a decrease in the total deficit as a percentage of GDP, reaching 7% in 2021/2022, 6.2% in 2022/23, 5.7% in 2023/2024 and 5.3% in 2024 / 2025, while forecasting the continued achievement of a primary surplus as a percentage of GDP, reaching 1.5% in 2021/22, and 2% in 2022/2023, 2023/2024 and 2024/2025.
On a related level, the Fund expects the current account deficit to decline as a percentage of GDP, to record 3.6% in 2021/2022, 2.6% in 2022/23 and 2.4% in 2023 / 2024 and 2024/2025. While debt is expected to decrease as a percentage of GDP, reaching 89.8% in 2021/2022, 87% in 2022/23, 83.4% in 2023/2024 and 79.9% in 2024/2025.
The report showed that the Fund expected a recovery in net international reserves, as it expected total international reserves to register $ 44.1 billion in 2021/2022, $ 47.6 billion in 2022/2023 and $ 51.8 billion in 2023/2024 and $ 55.1 billion in 2024. / 2025.
As for exports of goods and services, the IMF expects their volume to reach $ 50.5 billion in 2021/22, $ 60.5 billion in 2022/2023, $ 68.9 billion in 2023 / 2024 and $ 75.4 billion in 2024/2025, while the volume of tourism revenue is expected to reach $ 8 billion in 2021/2022, $ 15 billion in 2022/2023, 20.8 billion dollars in 2023/2024 and $ 25.1 billion in 2024/2025.
The Fund’s expectations indicate that net foreign direct investment will reach $ 8.6 billion in 2021/2022, $ 11.7 billion in 2022/2023, $ 14.9 billion in 2023/2024 and $ 16.5 billion in 2022/2023. dollars in 2024/2025. While he expected the Suez Canal revenues to reach $ 6.6 billion in 2021/2022, $ 6.9 billion in 2022/2023, $ 7.3 billion in 2023/2024 and 7.6 billion dollars in 2024/2025.
The report monitors the future expectations of the International Monetary Fund that the average growth rate of the Egyptian economy over the next 5 years will be the best in 25 years, at a rate of 5.6% in the years 2021/2022 to 2025/2026. , compared to 4.4 percent in years 2016/2017 to 2020/2021, 3.2 percent in years 2011/2012 to 2015/2016, 5.2 percent in years 2006/2007 to 2010 / 2011 and 4.2 percent in the years 2001/2002 to 2005/2006.
The report examined the evolution of economic growth rates, according to the fund, over the period 2001/2002 to 2025/2026, where it is expected to register 5.2% in 2021/2022, 5.6% in 2022 / 23 and 5.7%. in 2023/2024. And 5.8% in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026.
The report pointed out that the growth rate was 2.4 percent in 2001/2002, 3.2 percent in 2002/2003, 4.1 percent in 2003/2004, 4.5 percent in 2004/05 , and 6.8 percent in 2005/06 and 7.1 percent in 2006/2007, 7.2% in 2007/2008, 4.7% in 2008/2009, 5.2% in 2009/2010 and 1 , 8% in 2010/2011.
The growth rate recorded 2.2% in 2011/2012 and 2012/2013, 2.9% in 2013/2014, 4.4% in 2014/2015 and 2015/2016, and 4.2% in 2016/2017 , 5.3% in 2017/2018, 5.6% in 2018/2019, 3.6% in 2019/2020 and 3.3% in 2020/2021.
When it comes to the Fund’s expectations at the Arab level by 2022, the Egyptian economy ranked second with a value of $ 438.3 billion, while the Saudi economy came in first with a value of $ 438.3 billion. of $ 876.1 billion, and the UAE economy came in third place with a value of $ 427.9 billion.
It comes as the Fund expects the Iraqi economy to rank fourth in the Arab world for 2022, with a value of $ 226.6 billion, followed by Qatar’s economy at 180.9. billion dollars, the Algerian economy with 168.2 billion dollars, Kuwait with 138.8 billion dollars, Morocco with 132.6 billion dollars, and Oman with 132.6 billion dollars. $ 85.7 billion.
The Fund expects the Jordanian economy to rank tenth in the Arab world by 2022, with a value of $ 47.5 billion, followed by the Tunisian economy with $ 45.5 billion, then Bahrain’s economy with $ 41.1 billion, Sudan with $ 37.8 billion and Libya with $ 29.2 billion, Yemen with $ 20 billion, and Palestine with $ 18.8 billion dollars.
In addition, the Mauritanian economy ranked 17th with a value of $ 9.3 billion, followed by the economy of Somalia with $ 5.9 billion, Djibouti with $ 3.9 billion. and Comoros with $ 1.4 billion, noting that 2022 forecasts for the size of the economies of Lebanon and Syria are not available.
The report pointed out that the expectations of the International Monetary Fund indicate that the Egyptian economy will be the second largest in Africa in 2022, with a value of 438.3 billion dollars, compared to obtaining the third place in 2021 with a value of $ 396.3 billion.
As for the evolution of the size of African economies in 2021, the report showed that the Nigerian economy came first with a value of $ 480.5 billion, followed by the economy of South Africa with a value of $ 480.5 billion. of 415.3 billion dollars, while the Algerian economy came in fourth place with a value of 163.8 billion dollars.
In the same context, the economy of Morocco ranked fifth with a value of 126 billion dollars, then that of Kenya with 109.5 billion dollars, Ethiopia with 92.8 billion dollars, Ghana with $ 75.5 billion, Angola with $ 70.3 billion and Tanzania with $ 69.2 billion.
The report also examined the Fund’s vision for economic reform policies and the strong performance of the Egyptian economy during the coronavirus crisis, as the report cites the Fund’s statements, claiming that the structural reform plan that is being put implemented aims to achieve comprehensive goals and sustainable growth led by the private sector to create permanent employment opportunities and improve the resilience of the Egyptian economy to external shocks.
The IMF also noted that continued implementation of structural reforms is essential to ensure continued spending on priority basic needs such as health, education and social protection, while stressing that deepening and expanding structural reforms will be needed to address post-Corona challenges. and unleash Egypt’s enormous growth potential.
He also reviewed the contributions of reforms implemented since 2016 to help Egypt cope with the unprecedented global instability that accompanied the Corona crisis with policies that struck a balance between ensuring the continuation of necessary health and social spending, maintain sustainability of finances Cash flow and replenishment of cash reserves, in addition to proactive economic policies, have protected the Egyptian economy from the many burdens of the Corona pandemic.
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